Thinking out loud http://davekinkead.posterous.com Brain farts, mental hickups and other moments of clarity posterous.com Fri, 10 Sep 2010 18:15:14 -0700 Plain packaging, terrorism and flawed logic http://davekinkead.posterous.com/plain-packaging-terrorism-and-flawed-logic http://davekinkead.posterous.com/plain-packaging-terrorism-and-flawed-logic Every time I see the ad, I have a chuckle.  You know the one, where small businesses owners talk about the futility of plain packaging on cigarettes.  The campaign is being funded by big tobacco, not retailers and their arguments against plain packaging would make any crooked politician blush.

First up, illicit trade. Phillip Morris & co claim that plain packaging will fund terrorist groups and organised crime. The argument here seems to be that plain packaging will be easier to counterfeit, leading to illicit importation of ciggies, the proceeds of which will go to criminal or terrorist groups.  Ignoring for a moment the sheer absurdity of this rubbish, the claim is built on the premise that current colourful packets are harder to counterfeit than plain ones. Well, simply put a hologram or other anti-counterfeit device on the plain packet and the problem is solved. It doesn't have to stop counterfeiting (remember, Big Tobacco isn't saying that current ciggies are not counterfeited), it just has to be harder to counterfeit than current packaging and the problem is solved.

Next, they claim that plain packaging violates their right to use trademarks. This is their strongest argument but it is still terribly weak. Trademark law does not provide a right to plaster your branding anywhere you want. We already have plenty of restrictions on commercial communication - think advertising in sports, schools and other places. Plain packaging does not stop them from using trademarks on their products, just on the outside packages. If Big Tobacco is so concerned about using their trademarks, the are still able to put a logo on every individual cigarette and inside the packet. Problem solved.

My favourite claim however, is that there is no evidence it will work. This is an exemplar self defeating argument. If there is no evidence that plain packaging will reduce cigarette sales, why is Phillip Morris spending so much money fighting it? The very fact that they are fighting this law is because they believe it will hurt their bottom line. Not due to increased costs, but due to reduced sales and consumption. 

I'm not saying that plain packaging will work - there doesn't seem to be much evidence either way. But a law that doesn't cost taxpayers anything, that could have a strong positive effect on community health (and therefore lower the taxes we pay), and seems to frighten the pants off Big Tobacco, is one that I am happy to support.

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Wed, 01 Sep 2010 02:45:54 -0700 Simple joys http://davekinkead.posterous.com/simple-joys http://davekinkead.posterous.com/simple-joys Today I met Dr Paul Martin for a coffee and chat about our ludicrous helmet laws. A lovely down to earth guy working in our public hospitals, who sees the negative impacts of compulsory helmet laws every day.

Paul is a conscientious objector when it comes to helmets. He said he hasn't worn one in over a year (only one fine by the way) and looked like he was loving life riding lid free on his electric sit up Dutch bike. I've always been sceptical of electric bikes, viewing them as something only arthritic geriatrics use but not any more.  The motor kicks in when you start peddling cruising and automatically cuts out at 25kmh meaning one can potter around with a gentle turn or power up hills with just a few more strokes. A control on the handle bar allows you to turn it on, off or boost and the feeling is just like riding down hill when on the flat.  Battery lasts about 70km and you just plug it in at home and recharge in 2-3 hrs.

A few minutes riding around UQ, with the warm Queensland sun shining down and a lovely breeze blowing through my (formerly existent) hair was such a simple joy - carefree, liberating, invigorating.  It reminded me how how great cycling is in Europe and how much better it could be here in Australia. 

So give it a go and enjoy the pure joy from what the other 6.67 billion people of this planet get to do everyday - ride helmet free.

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Mon, 02 Aug 2010 02:12:32 -0700 Causation and Mill's Account http://davekinkead.posterous.com/causation-and-mills-account http://davekinkead.posterous.com/causation-and-mills-account John is dead because he ate raw chicken.

What caused John's death? Was it the raw chicken, the salmonella it contained, his poor immune system or that he forgot to take his antibiotics?  On Mills account, the cause of his death was the set of all conditions that were sufficient for death to invariably follow, unless any counteracting conditions were present (EG the antibiotics).

But Mill's account of causation presents a number of problems. Firstly, Mill dismisses absent conditions as causes. The absence of antibiotics therefore can't be a cause, despite the fact that their presence would have prevented John's death. Secondly, he includes counterfactuals - John wouldn't have died had he not eaten the raw chicken.  Thirdly, the sum of the conditions sufficient for the effect to follow is indeterminately large. It includes not only the conditions needed for John's death - poor immune system, salmonella etc but many more 'what if' conditions to be absent - that he didn't take his antibiotics, he didn't throw up the chicken, he didn't see a doctor earlier etc & ad infinitum.

Absent conditions matter because they cover a great deal of everyday meaning of causation - EG the driver died because he wasn't wearing a seat belt.

Counterfactuals are problematic because they turn sufficient conditions into necessary one.  Suppose John's wine was poisoned as well. Then the statement he would not have died had he not eaten the chicken no longer holds true.

The number of conditions necessary to be Mill's cause is problematic because it is simply too large to be meaningful to us. Mill rightly notes that no individual condition has any greater claim to be the cause than any of the others but it is beyond our cognitive abilities to list all the conditions present, let alone isolate them.

So what do we do?

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Wed, 14 Jul 2010 03:58:55 -0700 Silje's Birthday Party http://davekinkead.posterous.com/siljes-birthday-party http://davekinkead.posterous.com/siljes-birthday-party
Silje-til-bryllup-22-april

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Tue, 13 Jul 2010 21:52:32 -0700 All set for 2 weeks on the couch watching the tour http://davekinkead.posterous.com/all-set-for-2-weeks-on-the-couch-watching-the http://davekinkead.posterous.com/all-set-for-2-weeks-on-the-couch-watching-the
P7140001

Lucky I have a lovely & caring wife!!

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Wed, 19 May 2010 04:40:20 -0700 Thumbs Up! http://davekinkead.posterous.com/thumbs-up-86 http://davekinkead.posterous.com/thumbs-up-86 Motor skills can take a while to learn.  Our house mates in St Anton, Al & Daniela spent the last few months trying to teach Silje how to do the thumbs up. She could 'claim' but the thumbs up always turned into index fingers.  She finally got it this week, in her typical cheeky style.

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Tue, 18 May 2010 05:15:02 -0700 The dark heart of Denmark http://davekinkead.posterous.com/the-dark-heart-of-denmark http://davekinkead.posterous.com/the-dark-heart-of-denmark Today we ventured into the dark heart of the Lolland interior.  A perilous journey, full of danger and wallet raping entry fees, it was Silje's first contact with Rhinos, Giraffes, Tigers and Donkeys.

Knuthenborg Safari Park was actually much cooler than I thought. A former Herregårdspark (royal hunting estate) that some visionary aka 'loony' Danish toff decided would be far more fun full of Tigers and Antelope instead of rabbits and pheasants.  About 400 hectares in area, you just drive through the middle of the animals and get out of your car to touch them when you want. They do prefer you to stay in your car in the Tiger and Wolf zones though.

It also had the world's coolest play areas for the kiddies including about 2kms of obstacle course through the trees. Turns out Thomas and I spent more time there than the other kids!

They did have more than your typical 'do not' signs however. My favourite (below) is the 'Ingen medbragt spaghetti' or 'no home brought spaghetti' at the monkey enclosure. Maybe there was some illicit Italian gastronomic trade going on that I didn't see?

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Tue, 18 May 2010 04:50:32 -0700 Danish weather got its shit together (for a day) http://davekinkead.posterous.com/danish-weather-got-its-shit-together-for-a-da http://davekinkead.posterous.com/danish-weather-got-its-shit-together-for-a-da Jubii! Our prayers have finally been answered as Thor & Odin granted us a single day of glorious, Scandinavian sunshine.  I'd forgotten how fantastic this little country can be when the weather gets its shit together. Summer here is beautiful - all 13.25 days of it!

By the way, these photos were taken at 8pm. For all those Queenslanders still against daylight saving, you are clearly a pickled herring & bottle of schnapps short of a Scandinavian picnic.

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Sat, 08 May 2010 01:54:22 -0700 Spring at the Beach http://davekinkead.posterous.com/spring-at-the-beach http://davekinkead.posterous.com/spring-at-the-beach To end the season, we decided to spend a couple of weeks in Denmark in order to catch up with the family, and give Tina's mum plenty of time with Silje.

While we may have unlucky with the snow in Austria, we certainly got plenty of sunshine. That is one of the amazing things about living in the Alps - while the rest of Europe suffocates under a thick blanket of perpetual winter cloud, the Alps are normally bathed in sun thanks to the mountain's micro-climate. Despite the cold, it was still possible to wear t-shirt, shorts or even sunback in minus 0 temps - provided you were in direct sunlight.

Back in Scandinavia, I now remember why I found my first winter here so hard.  We left 24C sunburn days in the Tirol and arrived to 7C Danish spring.  There might be 'day'light until 9pm already, but the wet, 40kt winds do tend to put a damper on things.

Which brings us to our walk along the beach.  Our cottage is only 400m from the Baltic Sea so we try to walk along the beach every morning. Some days are not as nice as others however.

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Mon, 03 May 2010 02:06:00 -0700 The Dolomite Express http://davekinkead.posterous.com/the-dolomite-express http://davekinkead.posterous.com/the-dolomite-express

We decided to take the long way home. Why drive north to Denmark when you can head the opposite way to Süd Tirol and experience the Dolomites? I'm pretty sure that we wont do another season in St Anton so there was need for some reconnaissance of our next escape.

Superlatives in any language fail to describe the magnitude of their beauty.  Limestone monoliths erupting from the forest below, up to 2km high. Depending on the time of day, they are either, yellow, grey or pink and provide an amazing contrast to their sky blue background and spring forest foreground.

Some of the towns here are equally enchanting - a unique combination of Tirolean architecture, Italian food and local Laddish authenticity.  We spend a couple of nights in Canazei which was lovely & so friendly. A large park in the centre of town with a number of play sets meant Silje had a ball, especially around 4-7pm when all the families come out to socialise before diner. The only negative point for me was the ski terrain seemed lacked any runs back to town.  

Wolkenstein in the neighbouring Val Gardina was a little gem we discovered.  A village of about 1700 people spread through the valley in beautiful Tirolean houses, it had access to the same area as Canazei with the added bonus of 3 runs back to the centre of town plus a few nice looking side country possibilities.

Before heading back north, we also stopped by Cortina d'Amprezza.  Much bigger than most resort towns, this place was truly gorgeous.  Full of espresso & wine bars, Gucci & Armarni shops lined the pedestrian only centre.  The pistes seems seemed pretty sedate but I'd heard that there were some nice freeride possibilities there.  If so, this could be the place we move to - if only we could afford it!.

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Fri, 19 Mar 2010 03:50:00 -0700 Photo Update from St Anton http://davekinkead.posterous.com/photo-update-from-st-anton-tags-skiing-st-ant http://davekinkead.posterous.com/photo-update-from-st-anton-tags-skiing-st-ant

A couple of shots from earlier this month from the back bowl at Shongraben.

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Thu, 18 Mar 2010 14:17:00 -0700 A very boring start and end to my movie career http://davekinkead.posterous.com/13868660 http://davekinkead.posterous.com/13868660

A very boring start and end to my movie career. Keep an eye out for me behind a nude Felicity Jones #ChaletGirl  #Razzie

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Sat, 13 Mar 2010 16:38:00 -0800 Has Joe Hockey Missed the Point on Human Rights? http://davekinkead.posterous.com/123/has-joe-hockey-missed-the-point-on-human-rights http://davekinkead.posterous.com/123/has-joe-hockey-missed-the-point-on-human-rights

In a recent speech to the Grattan Institute in Melbourne, Federal Opposition Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey argues why he's a true believer in individual rights but wont support a Bill of Human Rights in Australia (extract from the Australian here). What struck me most upon reading this was the inherent contradiction in his position, a contradiction echoed by many who call themselves Libertarians. 

On the one hand, Hockey claims to be inspired by the work of Mill, most notably his argument that collective power should only be used against the individual to prevent harm to others.  Interestingly, he cautions against the growth in state power and argues that the subversion of individual rights that occurred under the Howard government of which he was a minister should be rescinded as quickly as possible.

Yet on the other hand, Hockey rallies against a Bill of Human Rights for Australia, arguing that it will imbue the Judiciary with too much power and undermine the independence of the courts.  Judges, he argues, will be making political, not legal decisions and this is undemocratic.

This position is contradictory on a number of counts however. The Judiciary exists in part to provide a check against the power of the Legislature.  They are the safety value that helps ensure the Libertarian ideals of Mill are not consumed by an overreaching State. They have always interpreted laws and made decisions on contestable issues that some in the legislature disagree with.  Far from being undemocratic, a Judiciary that is able to declare laws passed by Parliament unconstitutional lies at the very heart of our democracy.

Contrary to what some may think, the Judiciary do not make laws - that power is limited to Parliament.  If Hockey is concerned about Judges making contestable decisions about conflicting human rights, then the issue lies in the contents of a Bill of Rights, not in the existence of a Bill itself. As a Member of Parliament, this problem is wholly within Hockey's power to solve. Individual rights can only be protected by the law. They must be made explicit if their protection is to be enforced. 

A Bill of Human Rights, one that explicitly documents our fundamental rights and freedoms, only serves to enhance the Libertarian ideals that Hockey espouses. The individual freedoms and rights that he holds so dear will only be strengthened by a formal Bill of Human Rights explicitly stating what they are and a strong Judiciary that can enforce them.

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Thu, 25 Feb 2010 14:44:51 -0800 Dashboard Heaven http://davekinkead.posterous.com/dashboard-heaven http://davekinkead.posterous.com/dashboard-heaven Dashboard Heaven is a WordPress Plugin that allows you to control which user-level sees which widget in the admin dashboard.
  • Perfect for multi-user CMS.
  • No more unwanted WP Developer Feeds or inbound links!
  • Individual dashboard widget control.
Installation
  1. Upload `dashboard-heaven` directory to the `/wp-content/plugins/` directory
  2. Activate the plugin through the ‘Plugins’ menu in WordPress
  3. In the Admin panel, go to Tools => Dashboard Heaven
Requirements
  • Developed for Wordpress 2.9.2
  • Tested on Version 2.9.9

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Mon, 22 Feb 2010 16:53:22 -0800 Customising User Profile Data in Wordpress http://davekinkead.posterous.com/84/customising-user-profile-data-in-wordpress http://davekinkead.posterous.com/84/customising-user-profile-data-in-wordpress Wordpress 2.9+ offers some fantastic and long needed improvements to the world's greatest blogging software.  One improvement that I've found particularly useful is the ability to customise user profile information with a simple function call.  Background on the improvements can be found here but for the impatient, here is a quick summary: The filter that needs to be called to edit the user profile details is user_contactmethods...
add_filter( 'user_contactmethods' , 'update_contact_methods' , 10 , 1 );
In your callback function (in this example 'update_contact_methods'), use the following code to add a new field or remove an existing one.
$contactmethods['new_field'] = 'New Field Name'; unset($contactmethods['old_field_name']);
The beauty of this new functionality is that the profile data is stored in the wp_usermeta table and can then be accessed anywhere in your theme by calling get_usermeta( $user_id ,  $meta_name ). So putting it all together, add the following code to your template's functions.php file...
add_filter( 'user_contactmethods' , 'update_contact_methods' , 10 , 1 ); function update_contact_methods( $contactmethods ) { // Add new fields $contactmethods['phone'] = 'Phone'; $contactmethods['mobile'] = 'Mobile'; $contactmethods['address'] = 'Address'; // Remove annoying and unwanted default fields unset($contactmethods['aim']); unset($contactmethods['jabber']); unset($contactmethods['yim']); return $contactmethods; }
There you have it, a clean and simple way to customise your user profile information
add_filter('user_contactmethods','update_contact_methods',10,1);

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Mon, 28 Dec 2009 15:15:14 -0800 When is Terrorism Successful? http://davekinkead.posterous.com/82/when-is-terrorism-successful http://davekinkead.posterous.com/82/when-is-terrorism-successful The latest, and thankfully non-fatal, terrorist attack on a Delta Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Detroit has clearly shown that innocent people need not die for terrorists to be successful.  This shouldn't seem so strange given that the objective of terrorism is to terrorise.  Like many forms of asymmetric warfare, it acts as a force multiplier - impacting the lives of many more beyond those directly affected by violent acts. While death and injury from violent acts is truly terrible, it is the change in behaviour of those not directly affected that damages our society and way of life the most.  Like most editorials, the Australian highlights the inadequacies in our current security arrangements that allowed this failed bombing to happen and notes a range of immediate security changes like full body pat downs on flights to the US. If we'd only done this sooner the argument goes, we could have averted this near tradjedy. But sadly, it is in our response to terrorism where terrorists truly succeed.  Whilst terrorists acts result in fewer deaths and injuries than from peanuts, lightning strikes and accident causing deer, our legal and behavourial changes have been enormous.  We've changed the way we travel and move freight at enormous cost to the economy. We declare an emergency and arrest people when they get sick and spend too long in the toilet. We've given up civil liberties and long held human rights, all to reduce the threat of terror, but are yet to declare a War on Peanuts or include Bambi in the 'Axis of Evil'. Perhaps the objective of this attack wasn't to kill but to simply scare us into changing our way of life. In addition to taking off our shoes and loosing our duty free liquids, it looks like we'll now be subject to inner thigh pat downs.  I fear the next terrorist will smuggle explosives on board internally leading to the ultimate in security humiliation - the full body cavity search. While we may not be able to control the reasons why these people may want to kill or hurt us, we can control how we react. By limiting our responses to something more proportional to the threat (like that of peanuts and lightning strikes) we can reduce both the effectiveness and incentive of terrorist actions. To defeat terrorism, we must stop being terrified.

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Mon, 21 Dec 2009 23:46:35 -0800 Video Updates http://davekinkead.posterous.com/video-updates-1 http://davekinkead.posterous.com/video-updates-1 Here are a few clips from our first 2 weeks in St Anton.  Considering the pistes were nothing but grass 5 days before we arrived, we've been pretty lucky with the snow. This one is a flash forward 12 years in the future. Only my Silje will be a skier, not a boarder!

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Sat, 05 Dec 2009 23:02:09 -0800 South to St Anton http://davekinkead.posterous.com/south-to-st-anton http://davekinkead.posterous.com/south-to-st-anton After a week longer than expected in Denmark, we've finally made it to St Anton.  Our new (old) car drove like a Rolls Royce, despite the fact that it is a beer bottle green '95 VW Passat with 491,000 kms on the clock.  After our initial apprehensions, it managed the 13 hour drive down the autobahns of Germany at 140km quite nicely.  Traveling at 140 in Germany also meant we had to stay in the slow lane and watch the Porches, Audis, BMWs and even Polos overtake us at least 50km/h faster. About 1 hr before the Austrian boarder, the suffocating doona of clouds and rain that had been covering us since Scandinavia cleared to reveal the stars and snow covered fields.  A few tunnels and tolls later, we were in St Anton at about 2am.  The hills that were green just 4 days ago were now white and our friends Alan and Daniella were there with some beers to great us.   We were finally 'home' for the next 5 months. Home is a little 3 bedroom apartment in St Jacob, about 3km down the road from St Anton, that we are sharing with friends.  It is a typical Austrian affair with carved wooden furniture, backward facing toilets and a farmhouse with sheep and chickens on the side. Silje is enjoying playing with the animals although she is still adjusting to life in the snow and the mountains of clothing needed to go outside. First ski day tomorrow, lets see how the legs hold up....

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Sun, 29 Nov 2009 12:36:01 -0800 Video Updates http://davekinkead.posterous.com/video-updates http://davekinkead.posterous.com/video-updates Here are a few videos from the flight over and first few days in Denmark. Enjoy

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Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:27:32 -0800 Arrival in Denmark http://davekinkead.posterous.com/arrival-in-denmark http://davekinkead.posterous.com/arrival-in-denmark After 33 hours, we finally made it to Denmark.  No matter how many times I do it, I never seem to arrive feeling fresh and chirpy.  This time, we were lucky enough to fly business class from Brisbane to Frankfurt which, as always, was very nice.  We were a little concerned about taking an infant in business class (but hey, she was free so why not) but Silje was a near perfect angel, only crying when the seatbelt was put on for take off and landing. She was a little too big for the bassinet but there was plenty of room with the flat bed.  The Singapore-Frankfurt leg was near empty so we had a seat each to get a few hours fully extended sleep.  We actually felt pretty good on arrival in Frankfurt but the 5 hours there without lounge access were very painful indeed. On arrival in Copenhagen, we were graced with 2 of the 7 hours of sunlight for November 2009 to date.  Yes, by 25 Nov, Denmark had had only 7 total hours of sunlight for the month.  A typical winter day in Denmark goes like this:

0700 Wake up in pitch darkness.  Wind is blowing and it rains a little.

0900 Sun rises and turns the thick blanket of clouds suffocating the sky from black to a light charcoal.  Wind still blowing, more rain.

1227 A small part of the sky clears and bathes the ground in sunlight.  Colour perception returns, mood lifts. Wind not blowing so much.

1229 Cloud returns and the world is grey again.  Wind is blowing and it rains some more.

1530 Sun sets and the sky returns to blackness.  Wind blows, it rains.

1900 Eat herrings and drink snaps by candle light.  Look out window at trees blowing in the wind and rain.  Drink more.

2300 Go to bed and repeat cycle for 3 months.  More wind, rain.

The UN Climate Change Conference is being held here next week.  This was either total incompetence or a conspiracy at work because, as anyone who has visited Denmark in Winter knows, the one thing you wont complain about is global warming.

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