Plain packaging, terrorism and flawed logic

Every time I see the ad, I have a chuckle.  You know the one, where small businesses owners talk about the futility of plain packaging on cigarettes.  The campaign is being funded by big tobacco, not retailers and their arguments against plain packaging would make any crooked politician blush.

First up, illicit trade. Phillip Morris & co claim that plain packaging will fund terrorist groups and organised crime. The argument here seems to be that plain packaging will be easier to counterfeit, leading to illicit importation of ciggies, the proceeds of which will go to criminal or terrorist groups.  Ignoring for a moment the sheer absurdity of this rubbish, the claim is built on the premise that current colourful packets are harder to counterfeit than plain ones. Well, simply put a hologram or other anti-counterfeit device on the plain packet and the problem is solved. It doesn't have to stop counterfeiting (remember, Big Tobacco isn't saying that current ciggies are not counterfeited), it just has to be harder to counterfeit than current packaging and the problem is solved.

Next, they claim that plain packaging violates their right to use trademarks. This is their strongest argument but it is still terribly weak. Trademark law does not provide a right to plaster your branding anywhere you want. We already have plenty of restrictions on commercial communication - think advertising in sports, schools and other places. Plain packaging does not stop them from using trademarks on their products, just on the outside packages. If Big Tobacco is so concerned about using their trademarks, the are still able to put a logo on every individual cigarette and inside the packet. Problem solved.

My favourite claim however, is that there is no evidence it will work. This is an exemplar self defeating argument. If there is no evidence that plain packaging will reduce cigarette sales, why is Phillip Morris spending so much money fighting it? The very fact that they are fighting this law is because they believe it will hurt their bottom line. Not due to increased costs, but due to reduced sales and consumption. 

I'm not saying that plain packaging will work - there doesn't seem to be much evidence either way. But a law that doesn't cost taxpayers anything, that could have a strong positive effect on community health (and therefore lower the taxes we pay), and seems to frighten the pants off Big Tobacco, is one that I am happy to support.

Filed under  //  Logic   Politics  
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Simple joys

Today I met Dr Paul Martin for a coffee and chat about our ludicrous helmet laws. A lovely down to earth guy working in our public hospitals, who sees the negative impacts of compulsory helmet laws every day.

Paul is a conscientious objector when it comes to helmets. He said he hasn't worn one in over a year (only one fine by the way) and looked like he was loving life riding lid free on his electric sit up Dutch bike. I've always been sceptical of electric bikes, viewing them as something only arthritic geriatrics use but not any more.  The motor kicks in when you start peddling cruising and automatically cuts out at 25kmh meaning one can potter around with a gentle turn or power up hills with just a few more strokes. A control on the handle bar allows you to turn it on, off or boost and the feeling is just like riding down hill when on the flat.  Battery lasts about 70km and you just plug it in at home and recharge in 2-3 hrs.

A few minutes riding around UQ, with the warm Queensland sun shining down and a lovely breeze blowing through my (formerly existent) hair was such a simple joy - carefree, liberating, invigorating.  It reminded me how how great cycling is in Europe and how much better it could be here in Australia. 

So give it a go and enjoy the pure joy from what the other 6.67 billion people of this planet get to do everyday - ride helmet free.

Filed under  //  cycling   helmets  
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Causation and Mill's Account

John is dead because he ate raw chicken.

What caused John's death? Was it the raw chicken, the salmonella it contained, his poor immune system or that he forgot to take his antibiotics?  On Mills account, the cause of his death was the set of all conditions that were sufficient for death to invariably follow, unless any counteracting conditions were present (EG the antibiotics).

But Mill's account of causation presents a number of problems. Firstly, Mill dismisses absent conditions as causes. The absence of antibiotics therefore can't be a cause, despite the fact that their presence would have prevented John's death. Secondly, he includes counterfactuals - John wouldn't have died had he not eaten the raw chicken.  Thirdly, the sum of the conditions sufficient for the effect to follow is indeterminately large. It includes not only the conditions needed for John's death - poor immune system, salmonella etc but many more 'what if' conditions to be absent - that he didn't take his antibiotics, he didn't throw up the chicken, he didn't see a doctor earlier etc & ad infinitum.

Absent conditions matter because they cover a great deal of everyday meaning of causation - EG the driver died because he wasn't wearing a seat belt.

Counterfactuals are problematic because they turn sufficient conditions into necessary one.  Suppose John's wine was poisoned as well. Then the statement he would not have died had he not eaten the chicken no longer holds true.

The number of conditions necessary to be Mill's cause is problematic because it is simply too large to be meaningful to us. Mill rightly notes that no individual condition has any greater claim to be the cause than any of the others but it is beyond our cognitive abilities to list all the conditions present, let alone isolate them.

So what do we do?

Filed under  //  Causation   Mill   Philosophy  
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Thumbs Up!

Motor skills can take a while to learn.  Our house mates in St Anton, Al & Daniela spent the last few months trying to teach Silje how to do the thumbs up. She could 'claim' but the thumbs up always turned into index fingers.  She finally got it this week, in her typical cheeky style.

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The dark heart of Denmark

Today we ventured into the dark heart of the Lolland interior.  A perilous journey, full of danger and wallet raping entry fees, it was Silje's first contact with Rhinos, Giraffes, Tigers and Donkeys.

Knuthenborg Safari Park was actually much cooler than I thought. A former Herregårdspark (royal hunting estate) that some visionary aka 'loony' Danish toff decided would be far more fun full of Tigers and Antelope instead of rabbits and pheasants.  About 400 hectares in area, you just drive through the middle of the animals and get out of your car to touch them when you want. They do prefer you to stay in your car in the Tiger and Wolf zones though.

It also had the world's coolest play areas for the kiddies including about 2kms of obstacle course through the trees. Turns out Thomas and I spent more time there than the other kids!

They did have more than your typical 'do not' signs however. My favourite (below) is the 'Ingen medbragt spaghetti' or 'no home brought spaghetti' at the monkey enclosure. Maybe there was some illicit Italian gastronomic trade going on that I didn't see?

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Filed under  //  the journey  
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Danish weather got its shit together (for a day)

Jubii! Our prayers have finally been answered as Thor & Odin granted us a single day of glorious, Scandinavian sunshine.  I'd forgotten how fantastic this little country can be when the weather gets its shit together. Summer here is beautiful - all 13.25 days of it!

By the way, these photos were taken at 8pm. For all those Queenslanders still against daylight saving, you are clearly a pickled herring & bottle of schnapps short of a Scandinavian picnic.

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Spring at the Beach

To end the season, we decided to spend a couple of weeks in Denmark in order to catch up with the family, and give Tina's mum plenty of time with Silje.

While we may have unlucky with the snow in Austria, we certainly got plenty of sunshine. That is one of the amazing things about living in the Alps - while the rest of Europe suffocates under a thick blanket of perpetual winter cloud, the Alps are normally bathed in sun thanks to the mountain's micro-climate. Despite the cold, it was still possible to wear t-shirt, shorts or even sunback in minus 0 temps - provided you were in direct sunlight.

Back in Scandinavia, I now remember why I found my first winter here so hard.  We left 24C sunburn days in the Tirol and arrived to 7C Danish spring.  There might be 'day'light until 9pm already, but the wet, 40kt winds do tend to put a damper on things.

Which brings us to our walk along the beach.  Our cottage is only 400m from the Baltic Sea so we try to walk along the beach every morning. Some days are not as nice as others however.

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The Dolomite Express

We decided to take the long way home. Why drive north to Denmark when you can head the opposite way to Süd Tirol and experience the Dolomites? I'm pretty sure that we wont do another season in St Anton so there was need for some reconnaissance of our next escape.

Superlatives in any language fail to describe the magnitude of their beauty.  Limestone monoliths erupting from the forest below, up to 2km high. Depending on the time of day, they are either, yellow, grey or pink and provide an amazing contrast to their sky blue background and spring forest foreground.

Some of the towns here are equally enchanting - a unique combination of Tirolean architecture, Italian food and local Laddish authenticity.  We spend a couple of nights in Canazei which was lovely & so friendly. A large park in the centre of town with a number of play sets meant Silje had a ball, especially around 4-7pm when all the families come out to socialise before diner. The only negative point for me was the ski terrain seemed lacked any runs back to town.  

Wolkenstein in the neighbouring Val Gardina was a little gem we discovered.  A village of about 1700 people spread through the valley in beautiful Tirolean houses, it had access to the same area as Canazei with the added bonus of 3 runs back to the centre of town plus a few nice looking side country possibilities.

Before heading back north, we also stopped by Cortina d'Amprezza.  Much bigger than most resort towns, this place was truly gorgeous.  Full of espresso & wine bars, Gucci & Armarni shops lined the pedestrian only centre.  The pistes seems seemed pretty sedate but I'd heard that there were some nice freeride possibilities there.  If so, this could be the place we move to - if only we could afford it!.

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